Bitcoin, US Dollar, Disney, Roku, and more of your favorite stocks.
ES [S&P 500 FUTURES]
As expected another week of nothing but rallying on ES. Going forward, looking at the COT, there’s a slight pullback on the side of hedge funds this week + a small uptick on the sell side of the market. Not sure if that is going to manifest immediately, if at all, but we have to be ready for any and all contingencies. Now that we have broken out the sky’s the limit, and quite honestly we do not have an interest in any prolonged shorting.
Friday closed into a lower high and unless the high gets broken on Sunday the pullback could begin from there. Any and all pullbacks for now are to be viewed as nothing more than a chance to get long on the dip. Immediate demand levels below at 3450 and 3400 that we could play should price find its way there. On the other hand if ES breaks out yet again and holds 3510 as a new buyer’s zone we go long from there.
Always have both scenarios in mind so you can play accordingly. Weekly and hourly chart overview included, and for more detailed levels we are going to be updating as the week progresses.
SPX: 3550C are long for 9/04 while 3500p, 3480p, 3450p are long for 8/31SPY: Darkpools: Above: N/A; Below: 349.69, 348.22, 344.05
VIX [CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX FUTURES]
Not much change in the COT data for VIX futures, however the chart is painting a picture. VIX futures got rejected at 29.5 supply that we have as was expected, however we did see some buying. If VIX futures manage to claw back above 30 then we switch to extreme caution.
For now VIX futures are wedged in between 29.5 supply and currently retesting the break out of trading range at 26.3. If 26.3 gives out and gets turned into a seller’s zone then we could be looking at a gap fill further down, however if it holds buyers might swarm and start bidding it up from there.
Hedge funds going short the entire week in the U.S. Dollar. Small specs unfortunately went long, as it usually works out. There are 2 scenarios as of right now that could workout on the U.S. Dollar. The most important part is going to be the low at 92.12. If that low holds then the U.S. Dollar could pick up from there to retest the supply above again.
If that low breaks we are looking at a potential drop all the way down to 91.5 The supply at 93.5 did sell off the Dollar as was warned in the last newsletter. This time around it’s all about 92.1. If that level holds we go long, if that level breaks and upon retest it remains a seller’s zone it’s the perfect short.
Hedge funds were essentially buying Bitcoin last week. Bitcoin had a jump at our demand level as expected however it is now stuck between demand and supply on the daily. The levels we are looking at are annotated on the chart, however with hedge funds flipping to buying again we are more interested in seeing the above supply get turned into a new buyer’s zone for a continuation up.
Supply at 11,800 area and 12,120.
If the 11,800 area gets held as new demand then we see Bitcoin potentially breaking out of the recent trading range.
On the weekly chart Disney is primed and firing a long on our algo providing a buy signal. It may backtest and come back to 132–130 before bouncing and steam rolling towards the next fib at 148. Call volume feels the same way with 145/146calls long and 130p long for 9/04.
Our analysts are long with 140C for 9/04 @ 0.90 each.
Darkpools: Above: 138; Below: 133.90, 131.90
NKLA is just holding below the 50 ema line. Break over that we can see a potential gap fill towards 50 area. Options this week are pointing to a bullish momentum to continue. With call strikes from 55 through 75 being net long for 09/18 expiry.
ROKU made a new ATH, however closing underneath the top of the trading range. If 174 gets reclaimed then we might see a new leg up. For now however we have our eyes on a pullback down to 160 level demand. 158–162 to be precise with the zone.
If that area gets tested and held as a new buyer’s zone then ROKU might have potential to get to 180. Underneath that area though there is an untested gap at 148, and an untested demand zone at 135.
Darkpools: Above: N/A; Below: 163, 162.50
For even more analysis into Goldman Sachs, Facebook, Microsoft, Twitter, Walmart and many, many more, be sure to check out Echelon 1’s Weekend Report Vol XI.
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